Global study shows rise in crowd accidents at mass gatherings

A new study into mass gatherings has revealed a steady increase in crowd accidents over a period of more than a century up to 2019.

Analysising a database of crowd accidents developed for the period from 1900 through to 2019 through an investigation of press and media reports, authors Claudio Feliciani, Alessandro Corbetta, Milad Haghani and Katsuhiro Nishinari have found that the frequency of these accidents has been on the rise for the past 120 years.

Their study, Trends in crowd accidents based on an analysis of press reports, published in Volume 164 of the journal Safety Science, reviewed event date, country, location, number of fatalities, injuries, estimated crowd size, purpose of gathering and income level classification of the specific nation.

In identifying a steady rise in accidents per decade during the period from 1900 to 2019 it found ‘small’ accidents with less than 10 fatalities are on the rise, while big accidents are being statistically less frequent. ‘Safety in numbers’ was also observed, meaning that when ratios were considered, dividing fatalities and the number of people injured by crowd size, a decreasing trend can be observed in relation to the size of the crowd.

Defined as situations where mass gatherings of people lead to deaths or injuries, the review on crowd accidents created the opportunity to get an overall image on whether accidents are on the rise, and to judge whether the efforts that have been made in the last decades have paid off in helping the implementation of preventive measures to reduce accident probability.

The report also considered the specifics of each accident. A decline in sport-related accidents was noted as was a rise in religion-related accidents while a rise in accidents in lower-middle income group countries was observed, especially in those with areas that have a high population density.

The last conclusion drawn from the analysis was that the frequency of crowd accidents has stopped rising exponentially, despite, or maybe as a result of, the global impact of the internet. Technological advances have made it easier to share and collect information about events that previously might not have been striking enough to capture the focus of the worldwide media.

The study draws the conclusion that it is now possible to monitor crowd accidents on a regular basis to determine whether the regulations in place are sufficient, or more strict regulations are necessary to ensure the safety of crowds at events.

The authors of the journal hope that the lessons learned from various incidents in recent years, where crowd accidents have been evaluated and better practices introduced, can serve as an example on a global scale.

Nevertheless, awareness being the first step toward safety, the authors’ wish is that their journal could help in promoting the consideration of pedestrian traffic when designing infrastructure accommodating large crowds. The insights obtained from this study can help when developing diagnostic knowledge and to raise awareness about the pervasiveness of crowd accidents.

It also notes that there has long been a worldwide trend towards people living an increasingly dense urban lifestyle, explaining that, as a consequence, human crowds have been getting larger and occur more often, and in more forms.

Click here to access the full report in the journal Safety Science.

Images: There has been a steady increase in crowd accidents over a period of more than a century up to 2019 (top, credit: Shutterstock) and flowers and memorial messages for the Halloween 2022 crowd crush victims at Seoul's Itaewon subway station (below, credit: Shutterstock).