Report predicts global worst outcome for Australian snow resorts

Research published this week from Germany's University of Bayreuth in the journal PLOS One, highlights the future for the Australian Alps is threatened by a predicted 78% reduction in snow coverage by the end of the century.

The report - the first to combine open-source information on global geo-locations of ski areas with openly available global snow cover day projections – predicts that worldwide, 13% of ski areas will lose all natural snow cover by 2071–2100 and 20% will decrease between 50 and 100%.

The study puts Australia's rate of decline as the highest when compared to six other major skiing regions in the world, including New Zealand, Europe and Japan.

The report has been published at a time when climate change is currently impacting snow reliability in ski areas all over the world with growing concern among professional and amateur skiers and the skiing industry about how skiable the future will be.

The study’s approach enables assessing the global patterns of altering ski area distributions by identifying future trends (2011–2100) in natural snow cover days for ski areas worldwide.

Skiing and its touristic value are of great importance for local economies. In addition, biodiversity in mountainous areas is already heavily affected by global warming.

Study co-author Dr Veronika Mitterwallner said her team focused on a ‘high emission’ projection to summarise their findings.

Under a high emissions scenario, ski areas in the Southern Hemisphere will be most severely affected by climate change. Other Alps including the Andes and Southern Alps as well as the Japanese Alps and the Appalachians will also be most severely affected by climate change.

Responding to the report Climatologist and Australian National University Professor Janette Lindesay told the ABC "I'm not surprised by the findings of this report, to be honest. There's no doubt that we're heading for an even warmer future.

"The scenarios are effectively storylines … taking into account possible future carbon dioxide emissions, socio-economic circumstances, population growth and possible policy responses to global heating.

"The best thing we can do is get emissions down to net zero as fast as we possibly can."

Biodiversity in mountainous areas is likely to receive additional pressure by expanding ski areas and a concentration of skiers towards higher elevations.

The study predicts snow resorts may need to move or expand into less populated mountain areas at higher elevations to combat the effects of climate change – however the researchers highlight that this will result in additional pressure to biodiversity in mountainous areas.

University of Canberra based geomorphologist Phil Campbell told the ABC that would not necessarily work in Australia where ski resorts were at a lower altitude compared to other countries.

Campbell highlighted "One of the problems in Australia is that we're fairly low in our ski resorts, which are already at the very top of our mountains.

"We're not going to have the same ability as many other countries do to be able to relocate our ski resorts.

"The same goes for endangered plant species as well, because there's nowhere for them to retreat to."

The research found some ski resorts might need to expand infrastructure and increase intervening actions (i.e., artificial snowmaking, slope grooming) to prolong snow duration and ensure economic profitability.

The lack of snow is already problematic in many regions, with technical snowmaking having increased in importance for decades. Predicted increases in the crucial amount of additional snowmaking under future conditions varies depending on regional conditions and elevation.

The German research notes that “this measure is limited by the availability of fresh-water resources and by ambient temperature and costly due to high energy consumption. Particularly low altitude ski areas are more affected by climate change and artificial snow production will not compensate for the missing snow due to high economic costs, high resource demands and a lack of cold temperatures in the future . In addition, technical snow production can also have considerable ecological implications, like nutrient increase, change of soil properties or impacts on plant phenology.”

In September last year, Perisher ski resort stopped operating lifts at two of its four areas due to a lack of snow, signalling an early season shut down.

The decision to close Blue Cow and Guthega areas came as the Bureau of Meteorology confirmed the warmest winter since official records began in 1910, with average daily temperatures 1.53C above the long-term average.

Earlier in August 2023, fragile and limited snow cover at Victoria's Mount Buller’s forced organisers to cancel the 2023 Australian Interschools Championships.

The decision followed Buller Ski Lifts’ resort operations having reviewed the medium range weather forecast and current snow conditions both on the event sites and throughout the resort using Snowsat (snowdepth) technologies, drone footage and historical data to model the likely scenarios. As a result, it considered the options of running fewer events, shorter events and all possible event site locations.

In a statement released at the time by Snow Australia Interschools, organisers revealed “it is evident, given the mild weather forecast for the next seven days that appropriate National Interschool level courses and event sites cannot be built and maintained.”

Back in 2018, a report from the Victorian Government suggested that within 30 years most of Australia’s alpine resorts are likely to have closed and the number of days each year of good natural snow cover on the ski slopes could be in single figures.

The Victorian Government report forecasts another 20 to 30 years of economically viable natural snowfall for Victoria’s biggest alpine resorts, Mt Hotham, Mt Buller and Falls Creek, and perhaps 10 years or less for the lower altitude resorts Lake Mountain and Mt Baw Baw.

The report explains that as climate change brings warmer and drier weather to south eastern Australia, the mountain resorts will rely even more on artificial snow to stay in business but it will also become more energy-intensive and more expensive to produce.

The 2018 report by SGS Economics and Planning was the result of more than a year’s research and consultation and was published by the Victoria’s Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning. However, it was noted that the report had at the time not been peer-reviewed and it cautioned that modelling the impact of climate change of Victoria’s snowfields beyond 20 years is difficult and will be influenced by the success of international efforts to contain global warming.

Access the full German University of Bayreuth report here 

Image. Perisher 5th June 2023 snow coverage